Over the past two months the news on housing market has been up and down and all around, business as usual so I decided to take a break updating the same old same old. There were also other things happening, Hurricane Sandy which has devastated the NE and still the after math continues on for who knows how long, then we had the Presidential election, which was the ugliest in decades and which has left us more divided then anyone would have every expected, then we have the threat of the Fiscal Cliff debacle which if go over or even come close could derail our fragile economy and also the Benghazi terrorist attack scandal which looks like will divide us even more but never the less should be thoroughly invested and resolved in what ever way is required for justice to prevail. Then there is the little matter of the Arab Spring which has hasn't turned out as the optimist expected, which finally ended in a mini war between Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza. So as you can see the past two months has been chock full of nuts, but some where in all this wild and crazy there was news about our real estate market, and this time it appears to be overwhelmingly good, at least for right now.
According to to the most recent 11/20/2012 Housing Views www.housingviews.com which is part of the S&P rating services things are definitely looking up on a national level.
"October Housing starts rose 3.6% to 894,000, a four year high. Starts were strongest in the West with a 17% gain followed by the Midwest with a 6.5% gain; starts fell in the South (-6.5%) and the Northeast (-2.5%). Permits for future construction, which surged in September, slid back in October to 866,000 units, a drop of 2.7%. The strong housing starts report follows a jump in builders’ sentiment as measured by the National Association of Home Builders index which rose to 46, a six year high, from 41. Existing home sales are showing showing strength at 4.79 million units, up 2.1%, in October. Combined with other reports over the last few months, these data confirm that the housing sector is making a positive contribution to the economy after a long drought. "
According to the stats from Movoto.com the West Palm Beach housing stats (Single Family, Town House, Condo) are as follows:
All Homes
|
Today
|
Last Month
|
6 Months
|
1 Year Ago
|
Total Inventory
|
1603
|
1569
|
1780
|
2160
|
Median List Price
|
165000
|
155000
|
145000
|
130000
|
% Distressed
|
0.03
|
0.03
|
0.05
|
0.07
|
Median Days on Market
|
90
|
94
|
96
|
118
|
Median Price Per Sq Ft.
|
85
|
84.1
|
79.8
|
74.15
|
What these stats are saying is that in the 200,000 and under price range for all homes in West Palm Beach its seems pretty clear that this market segment had bottomed, and has been rising for the past 12 months. Which is not to say its this way in ever area, home sales stats are very much location specific. So just because one area is doing well doesn't mean another area a few miles away is doing as well or as poorly.
Now lets take a look at just the local West Palm Beach single family homes stats:
Single Family Homes
|
Today
|
Last Month
|
6 Months
|
1 Year Ago
|
Total Inventory
|
760
|
742
|
858
|
1030
|
Median List Price
|
279,000
|
260,000
|
250,000
|
225,000
|
% Distressed
|
4%
|
4%
|
5%
|
9%
|
Median Days on Market
|
90
|
92
|
100
|
113
|
Median Price Per Sq Ft.
|
103
|
100
|
95
|
88
|
Another very important stat to take into consideration when looking at these statistics is that during this same time period the number of home price reductions have steadily declined to their lowest point in 12 months. During this same time period the number of new listings has been anything but steady, rising and falling from month to month, though lower the last three months then the average. This lack of new inventory would explain the reason homes in these price ranges are hard to find which will cause prices to rise. Then add to this the fact that the number of listing that were sold and or Expired has declined quite dramatically in the last year and it verifies that there are less homes in this price range to sell.
So what is the take away, the local markets have been and continue to improve, good inventory is hard to find, local home prices seem to be holding and or rising, its taking less time to sell these homes because of a dearth of inventory as well as homes are being priced closer to or at market value so they sell faster.
OK so now we have looked at the stats for All Homes as well as Single Family Homes but what do the stats say about our huge Condominium market? See the stats below:
Condominium Sales
|
Today
|
Last Month
|
6 Months
|
1 Year Ago
|
Total Inventory
|
843
|
827
|
922
|
1130
|
Median List Price
|
73,000
|
69,900
|
70,000
|
69,900
|
% Distressed
|
2%
|
2%
|
5%
|
5%
|
Median Days on Market
|
91
|
95
|
94
|
124
|
Median Price Per Sq Ft.
|
64
|
62
|
59
|
57
|
Looking at these stats as compared to the others you can clearly see that the condo market has improved but not nearly as well as the other housing segments. There are some very good reasons for this. Home preferences run in a particular order, Single family, Single Family attached, Town home, Multi family and finally Condominiums. Since condos are normally the least preferred type of property to own for most full time family owners and investors are turned off by the yearly fees associated with Condo ownership its no wonder they have improved the least to date. In fact on Palm Beach condo sale prices have declined through the end of Oct 2012 by 9% year over year.
One of the problems is that certain segments of the condominium market are resistant to the facts of their local markets and so they refuse to accept that their condo isn't worth what they feel it should. As a result they either refuse to sell preferring to wait for the market to come to them, or if they want to sell they have to find a Realtor who agrees with them, normally not a recipe for seller sales success.
My Final Thoughts
So as we approach the end of the year, its clear that our national and local real estate markets have been and continue to improve, though some faster then others. My advice to those that want to buy themselves a home, you better get started because its not going to get any easier or less expensive then right now. For those that want to sell a home, you better get a grip on reality, don't expect buyers to offer you more then your home is worth, in fact if your home is priced out of the market don't expect to many buyers if any willing to even make an offer. To succeed you have to deal with what is right now " Yesterday is a canceled check, Tomorrow a promissory note, Only today is legal tender"
