"The crash is over," Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in a telephone interview yesterday. "Home sales -- both new and existing -- and housing starts are now off the bottom." ( I see this as great news)
"Values in 20 U.S. cities fell 3.5 percent in February, the smallest 12-month drop since February 2011, the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed yesterday."( I see this as not so good news, prices are still falling just not as fast)
"While the volume of sales has increased, prices still have a way to fall because as many as 6 million homes with delinquent mortgages and in the foreclosure process are likely to come to the market, Scott Simon, head of mortgage- and asset-backed debt at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., said yesterday on Bloomberg Television" ( More conflicting news)
"We think we'd go down another 3 or 4 percent over the next 12 months, probably bottoming sometime next year," Simon said on "Surveillance Midday" with Tom Keene. "One month doesn't change anything."( So the end appears in sight but its still at least another year away?)
"Robert Shiller, a Yale University economics professor and co-creator of the home-price index, also said prices may be poised to fall further. "I'm more concerned about the downside than most people," Shiller said yesterday on Bloomberg Radio. "I could see it staying languishing and edging down for years."( Sounds pretty dismal, like more downside for quite a while longer)
"Home values in more than half of major U.S. markets will probably reach a bottom by the end of the year, according to Seattle-based Zillow Inc." ( So the bottom is still not in yet but close)
"Meyer, senior economist with Bank of America in New York, said the recovery will be led by the parts of the country with fewer foreclosures and more job growth. She estimates that U.S. prices will reach bottom this year and stay little changed until 2014, when they may gain about 2.5 percent."
(This seems to make perfect logical sense)
"This year's selling season is shaping up to be the strongest we've seen in years," Margaret Kelly, Re/Max's chief executive officer, said in a statement. "Although we don't expect home prices to rise in every market at the same rate, the worst is definitely behind us, and a slow, steady recovery is taking hold."( Now this more true then most)
IMO-Whats the takeaway from all these various opinions about the state of the national real estate market. Well the worst is over, we are near but not yet at the bottom, how close to the bottom depends on the specific market. Those that bottom first will be the first to start to turn around, but the critical factor for any turnaround will be job creation which then fuels consumer confidence which sparks demand which then pushes up home prices..
The Bloomberg headline said in bold big letters "Housing Declared Bottoming in U.S." yes it is bottoming, but as you can see there are various opinions as to when the bottom will be made and how much further prices may drop before the bottom is found. So the news is good "Sorta" because it gives us all hope that things will be changing for the better and sooner rather then later.
